The recent de-escalation between India and Pakistan, following a period of intense military exchange, reveals a complex interplay of factors, including back-channel diplomacy, economic pressures, and the influence of the United States. The near-constant tensions between the two nations nearly erupted into a full-blown war after the April 22 attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, which resulted in 26 fatalities.
In response to the April 22 attack in Pahalgam, which India alleges was carried out by a Pakistan-based terror outfit, India launched "Operation Sindoor" on May 7. This operation involved missile strikes on multiple targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan swiftly retaliated, claiming to have downed Indian jets and damaged infrastructure. These actions led to a dangerous escalation, with both sides trading accusations of aggression and violating ceasefire agreements.
Amidst the escalating tensions, reports emerged of back-channel talks between the National Security Advisors (NSAs) of India and Pakistan. Pakistan's NSA, Lt General Asim Malik, reportedly initiated communication with his Indian counterpart, Ajit Doval, with the aim of de-escalating the crisis. These talks were reportedly facilitated through urgent efforts by international and regional powers. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif also played a role, advising his younger brother, the incumbent Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, to ease tensions with India diplomatically. On May 10, 2025, a ceasefire was announced from 1700 hours following an agreement between both India and Pakistan.
Pakistan's economic vulnerability also played a significant role in the breakthrough. The country has been facing an economic crisis and depends heavily on financial assistance from international institutions. With a crucial International Monetary Fund (IMF) review meeting on loans to Pakistan scheduled, Islamabad's war drums may have jeopardized the much-needed financial assistance. The IMF was considering a new $1.3 billion loan to Pakistan under its Resilience and Sustainability Facility. Ultimately, the IMF approved the first review of Pakistan's economic reform program, releasing approximately $1 billion. India abstained from voting during the IMF Executive Board meeting. The IMF also cleared Pakistan's request for a new arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), providing access to an additional $1.4 billion.
The United States also played a crucial role in de-escalating the tensions. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with the national security advisors of India and Pakistan, urging both sides to "keep lines of communication open and avoid escalation". The U.S. has a growing partnership with India, viewing it as a vital counterbalance to China's influence in Asia. However, it also needs to manage its relationship with Pakistan, given its increasing ties to China.
The de-escalation between India and Pakistan highlights the complex factors at play in their relationship. Back-channel diplomacy, facilitated by international actors, can provide a crucial off-ramp during times of crisis. Economic pressures can also influence decision-making, as Pakistan's need for financial assistance likely contributed to its willingness to de-escalate. The role of the United States, with its strategic interests in the region and its relationships with both countries, remains critical in managing tensions and promoting stability.
